从会员到责任：中国向何处去？

On both sides, there is a gulf in perceptions. The overwhelming priority of China' senior officials is to develop and modernize a China that still faces enormous internal challenges. While proud of their accomplishments, China' leaders recognize their country' perceived weaknesses, its rural poverty, and the challenges of political and social change. Two-thirds of China' population ?nearly 900 million people ?are in poor rural areas, living mostly as subsistence farmers, and 200 million Chinese live on less than a dollar a day. In China, economic growth is seen as an internal imperative, not as a challenge to the United States.

Therefore, China clearly needs a benign international environment for its work at home. Of course, the Chinese expect to be treated with respect and will want to have their views and interests recognized. But China does not want a conflict with the United States.

Nevertheless, many Americans worry that the Chinese dragon will prove to be a fire-breather. There is a cauldron of anxiety about China.

The U.S. business community, which in the 1990s saw China as a land of opportunity, now has a more mixed assessment. Smaller companies worry about Chinese competition, rampant piracy, counterfeiting, and currency manipulation. Even larger U.S. businesses ?once the backbone of support for economic engagement ?are concerned that mercantilist Chinese policies will try to direct controlled markets instead of opening competitive markets. American workers wonder if they can compete.

China needs to recognize how its actions are perceived by others. China' involvement with troublesome states indicates at best a blindness to consequences and at worst something more ominous. China' actions ?combined with a lack of transparency ?can create risks. Uncertainties about how China will use its power will lead the United States ?and others as well ?to hedge relations with China. Many countries hope China will pursue a "Peaceful Rise," but none will bet their future on it.

For example, China' rapid military modernization and increases in capabilities raise questions about the purposes of this buildup and China' lack of transparency. The recent report by the U.S. Department of Defense on China' military posture was not confrontational, although China' reaction to it was. The U.S. report described facts, including what we know about China' military, and discussed alternative scenarios. If China wants to lessen anxieties, it should openly explain its defense spending, intentions, doctrine, and military exercises.

Views about China are also shaped by its growing economic footprint. China has gained much from its membership in an open, rules-based international economic system, and the U.S. market is particularly important for China' development strategy. Many gain from this trade, including millions of U.S. farmers and workers who produce the commodities, components, and capital goods that China is so voraciously consuming.

But no other country ?certainly not those of the European Union or Japan ?would accept a $162 billion bilateral trade deficit, contributing to a $665 billion global current account deficit. China ?and others that sell to China ?cannot take its access to the U.S. market for granted. Protectionist pressures are growing.